Probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting via a deep learning‐based hybrid approach

Abstract

Probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting has received widespread attention in recent years, as it provides more uncertainty information for the future photovoltaic generation. In this study, a hybrid probabilistic solar irradiance prediction method is proposed, which combines a deep recurrent neural network and residual modeling. Specifically, the long short‐term memory‐based point prediction using historical records and related features is applied to obtain deterministic forecasts. Next, these deterministic forecasts are employed as inputs to estimate the residual distributions. Furthermore, maximum likelihood estimation is utilized to compute the parameters of the residual distribution. Finally, the point prediction and residual distribution jointly generate the final probabilistic forecasting results. Compared with other deterministic and probabilistic forecasting models, the proposed method yields promising results on a publicly available dataset. © 2020 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.