Probabilistic sensitivity analysis to understand the influence of micromechanical properties of wood on its macroscopic response

Abstract

This paper investigates the influence of the uncertainty in different micromechanical properties on the variability of the macroscopic response of cross-laminated timber plates, by means of a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Cross-laminated timber plates can be modelled using a multiscale finite element approach which although suitable, suffers from high computational cost. Investigating parametric importance can incur considerable time penalty since conventional sensitivity analysis relies on a large number of code evaluations to produce accurate results. In order to address this issue, we build a statistical approximation to the code output and use it to perform sensitivity analysis. We investigate the effect of a collection of parameters on the density and Young’s moduli of wood. Additionally, the influence on the response of cross-laminated timber plates subject to bending, in-plane shear and compression loads is investigated due to its relevance within the engineering community. The presented results provide a practical insight into the importance of each micromechanical parameter, which allows research effort to be focused on important wood properties.