Probabilistic seismic multi-hazard loss estimation of Iran gas trunklines

Abstract

The location of Iran in addition to holding the world's second-largest gas reserves, makes this country an important transporter of natural gas in the world. Moreover, Iran is a country that suffers from hazards associated with frequent destructive earthquakes, which can severely damage buried gas transmission networks, different losses correspond to individuals, social, environmental, and the property is expected. Therefore, it is essential to identify potential seismic hazards and assess their risk will be induced to the country. This paper is performing a comprehensive probabilistic loss assessment of the entire network of the Iran Gas Trunklines (IGAT) due to seismic multi-hazard failure using GIS-based analyses and the HAZUS methodology proposed by FEMA. In the current study, all kinds of seismic hazards are considered for analyzing the IGAT as a spatially-distributed infrastructure for being exhaustive. As a result, seismic hazard maps, repair rate maps, the IGAT expected damage state map, and the IGAT economic loss map are presented. As an example of the outputs of this study, the economic loss of the IGAT is predicted by up to 380 US dollars per segment, which is related to the most vulnerable segments of the pipelines. The outputs of the current research not only can help to plan for mitigating the probable seismic losses but also can help anyone, who are involved in designing and developing new gas transmission lines, to design new trunklines with a more degree of safety.