Abstract
A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) values, for both 10% and 5% probability of exceedance in 50 years, has been performed for the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain. To do that, an updated, unified, and Poissonian earthquake catalog (since 685 to 2019) was prepared for this work. Three alternative seismic source models were considered in a designed logic-tree framework. The discrimination between the shallow and intermediate depth seismicity along the Zagros and the Makran regions was also considered in this assessment. Three alternative ground-motion attenuation models for crustal earthquakes and one additional for intermediate-depth ones have been selected and applied in this study, considering the predominant stress regime computed previously for each defined source. This assessment highlights that the maximum obtained hazard values are observed in the northeastern part of the studied region, specifically at Ras Al-Khaimah, Umm Al-Quwain, and Fujaira, being characterized by mean PGA and SA (0.2 s) pair values equal to (0.13 g, 0.30 g), (0.12 g, 0.29 g), and (0.13 g, 0.28 g), respectively, for a 475-year return period and for B/C National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) boundary site conditions. Seismic hazard deaggregation in terms of magnitude and distance was also computed for a return period of 475 years, for ten emirates and cities, and for four different spectral periods.
Highlights
During the last few decades, the Arabian (Persian) Gulf countries (United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Bahrain) have experienced huge economic growth reflected by the development of their infrastructure and construction industry, as well as a considerable increase of population
Using the previously quoted catalog [6], alongside with available data about active of the previous zoning model, as well as to consider earthquakes where they really happen
Higher seismic hazard values for those cities (Dubai and Doha; see Figure 8) than those included in the available regulations that are officially enforced by these municipalities have been obtained. Such differences can be attributed to several factors: (a) a more updated earthquake catalog than those studies considered in the building regulations for the investigated countries has been used, (b) the different zoning models implemented in our assessment, (c) the inclusion in this assessment of two different levels of seismicity, and corresponding potential seismic sources, in which the intermediate-depth seismicity was discriminated from the shallower one, and (d) the selected ground-motion attenuation models used in this assessment are worldwide and region-specific models, differing from those considered in previous studies. Taking into consideration such differences, as well as the fact that some regulations for some emirates and cities only depend on the peak ground acceleration (PGA) value in the definition of the design spectra, we propose the application of a different approach for the formulation of the design spectra all over the studied countries
Summary
During the last few decades, the Arabian (Persian) Gulf countries (United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Bahrain) have experienced huge economic growth reflected by the development of their infrastructure and construction industry, as well as a considerable increase of population. A significant result from this assessment has been the deaggregation analysis, providing the necessary data of the most contributing seismic sources to the hazard at a particular site, which could be used by engineers and analysts to both select the ground-motion acceleration records and generate scenario earthquakes required for the seismic design. This assessment provides the necessary seismic zoning maps, as well as a new proposed design spectrum, that are fully compatible with the requirement of the new building codes all over the world
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