Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Kahramanmaras Province, Turkey

Abstract

Kahramanmaras and its surroundings are under the influence of East Anatolian and Dead Sea fault zones which have significance in the tectonics of Turkey. The long-term energy accumulation in these zones creates a very high risk level in terms of seismic hazard. In this study, the seismic hazard of Kahramanmaras Province and its vicinity was tried to be determined by using the probabilistic seismic hazard method approach. The earthquake catalog used in the study comprises 424 earthquakes equal or greater than M w = 4.0, covering a time period between 1 January 1900 and 1 January 2015. The earthquake data have been compiled from the catalogs of the International Seismological Center (ISC), Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Management Precidency (RTPMDEMP), Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. Seismic sources that could affect the study area have been identified according to the Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME). Seismic hazard parameters and peak horizontal acceleration values were obtained by using the selected attenuation relationships, and the results were given with iso-acceleration maps corresponding to a recurrence period of 475 years. The calculated peak horizontal acceleration values are generally varying between 0.21 and 0.41 in the study area. The result of this study shows that the southeastern parts of the study area have a greater seismic hazard compared with other parts.