Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Nepal

Abstract

The seismic ground motion hazard for Nepal has been estimated using a probabilistic approach. A catalogue of earthquakes has been compiled for Nepal and the surrounding region (latitude 26° N and 31.7° N and longitude 79° E and 90° E) from 1255 to 2011. The distribution of catalogued earthquakes, together with available geological and tectonic information were used to delineate twenty-three seismic source zones in Nepal and the surrounding region. By using the seismic source information and probabilistic earthquake hazard parameters in conjunction with a selected ground motion prediction relationship, peak ground accelerations (PGAs) have been calculated at bedrock level with 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The estimated PGA values are in the range of 0.07–0.16 g, 0.21–0.62 g, and 0.38–1.1 g for 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. The resulting ground motion maps show different characteristics of PGA distribution, i.e., high hazard in the far-western and eastern sections, and low hazard in southern Nepal. The quantified PGA values at bedrock level provide information for microzonation studies in different parts of the country.