Probabilistic risk assessment of landslide-induced surges considering the spatial variability of soils

Abstract

Quantitative risk assessment of landslide-induced surges is often a prerequisite for formulating rational strategies to reduce the disaster severity degree of surrounding residents and infrastructures facilities. In this study, soils are simulated by a random field and the random finite element method is utilized to obtain several relevant parameters (e.g., volume of slide mass, slide velocity, inclination angle and length of slip surface) of reservoir bank slopes for evaluating the landslide-induced surges hazard. A modified risk index is proposed to evaluate the landslide-induced surges hazard, which is more straightforward than the initial surge height. Quantitative risk assessment is conducted based in the introduced risk index for the occurrence of reservoir bank landslides. Compared with a uniform soil slope, a slope considering spatially variable soils generally has a higher initial surge height, which implies a more disastrous surge hazard.