Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Small Airplanes

Abstract

*† ‡ § ** †† ‡‡ §§ This paper describes the development of a probabilistic methodology that can perform risk assessment of small airplanes. The objective was to develop a comprehensive probabilistic methodology to allow Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) engineers to conduct a risk assessment of general aviation (GA) structural issues in support of policy decisions. Requisite-supporting technology and data issues, in particular, probability distributions of relevant inputs, were investigated and developed so that a realistic risk assessment could be obtained. Example problems are presented to demonstrate the methodology that includes the calculation of flights (or hours)-to-failure and the probabilityof-failure for a specified number of flying hours. Representative sensitivity studies were also conducted to determine significant variables.