Probabilistic Risk Analysis Methodology on Inadvertent Laser Illumination of Satellite Optical Systems

Abstract

As the numbers and applications of laser systems grow worldwide, the potential risks to satellite optical systems from inadvertent ground-based laser operations are a growing cause for concern. Although the hazards from United States Department of Defense laser program operations are mitigated with a formal predictive avoidance process, all satellite owners and operators are implicitly accepting risks from other domestic and foreign lasers. Yet, these risks are generally not well known in space communities. To better understand these risks, a probabilistic risk analysis methodology has been developed to quantify the risks posed to all or a select group of satellite optical payloads by a single laser or classes of laser systems. The methodology uses a Monte Carlo approach to account for factors relating to the chance that a satellite can be illuminated, the probability the optical sensor is “looking” at the laser, the uncertainties related to atmospheric effects on the beam, and the probability of exceeding the damage-onset threshold for a single pixel of a given detector material. A Poisson process models the risk as a function of the number of laser operations.