Abstract
To analyze the risk of gas overrun in coal mines and improve the risk analysis, a novel risk analysis method was proposed based on FAHP and Bayesian network. The risk analysis framework consisted of causal reasoning, logical reasoning, and sensitivity analysis. The gas overrun risk analysis was conducted by taking the Laohutai Coal Mine in China as the research object. Specifically, based on prior knowledge and sample data, the probability of the gas overrun was 3.2%, belonging to a small probability event. However, the probability of gas concentration exceeding 1% was 12%, and there was still potential danger. Logical reasoning diagnosed and identified that wind speed and air leakage were the direct causes of gas overrun. Sensitivity analysis indicated that wind speed, human error, and ground stress were key factors of the gas overrun. The case study showed this fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP)-Bayesian network (BN)-based risk analysis method can provide real-time and dynamic decision support for gas overrun control and treatment in coal mines to ensure the safe and efficient mining.
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