Probabilistic Rainfall Thresholds for Landslide Occurrences in Bhutan

Abstract

Several works have been conducted all across the globe determining rainfall thresholds in context of intensity-duration thresholds. Such results provide results in terms of occurrence or non-occurrence of landslides. This paper determines probabilities for various rainfall parameters causing landslides using a Bayesian approach along Phuentsholing Thimphu Highway in Chukha Dzongkhag of Bhutan. For Bhutan Himalayas, probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation has not yet been attempted. The probabilities determined can be used for early warning systems considering it is a major trade route with India