Abstract
Abstract. We present joint probability distribution functions of future seasonal-mean changes in surface air temperature and precipitation for the European region for the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The probabilistic projections quantify uncertainties in the leading physical, chemical and biological feedbacks and combine information from perturbed physics ensembles, multi-model ensembles and observations.
Highlights
Global Climate Models (GCMs) can provide detailed predictions of future climate change, solving the physical, chemical and biological equations which describe the climate system
Our goal is to quantify the uncertainty in predictions of future climate change, and using observational constraints to assess the relative likelihood for different model projections, arrive at climate predictions that can be presented in the form of probability distribution functions (PDFs)
We concentrate on projections of surface air temperature and precipitation for the European region, work undertaken as part of the ENSEMBLES project (Hewitt and Griggs, 2004; van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009)
Summary
Global Climate Models (GCMs) can provide detailed predictions of future climate change, solving the physical, chemical and biological equations which describe the climate system. The size of the grid is limited by the availability of computer resources and the representation of sub-grid scale processes is approximate, and limited by our ability to fully understand and measure climate processes. The consequence of this is that predictions of the future made using climate models are uncertain. It should be emphasised that the PDFs measure our uncertainty in the future climate based on our current understanding of the climate system and our current ability to model and observe it They do not represent the frequency of occurrence of future events, but rather the weight of evidence supporting different possible outcomes for a one-off future event. Some of the issues in the use and interpretation of the PDFs are discussed in Sect. 5, while in the concluding remarks in Sect. 6 we describe how probabilistic projections could evolve in the future
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
