Probabilistic Prognosis of Wind Turbine Faults With Feature Selection and Confidence Calibration

Abstract

With the ever-increasing expansion of the installed capacity of wind power generation, reliable condition monitoring for wind turbines (WTs) has become increasingly important. To this end, this paper proposes a probabilistic WT fault prognosis (WTFP) scheme to output reliable fault probabilities in addition to class predictions. First, a multivariate time series (MTS) based mutual information estimator (MIE) is developed to integrate with combinational optimization, selecting features that contain more beneficial temporal data patterns for WTFP. Then, a multi-fault prognosis model for WTs is trained based on the selected features and MTS learning network. Next, a confidence calibration (CC) post-processing module is appended to re-construct the mapping relation between network logits and posterior probabilities by minimizing negative log-likelihood, thereby calibrating confidence estimates to approximate the true correctness likelihood as much as possible while keeping the high accuracy of the trained MTS learning network. These components finally drive a comprehensive WTFP model. Test results on the field data of WT verify the efficacy of MTS-based MIE and CC, and show that the proposed probabilistic WTFP scheme can provide more reliable probability estimates, contributing to better decision-making.