Probabilistic power flow analysis with correlated wind speeds

Abstract

In this paper, a polynomial transformation model is proposed to fit the quantile function of wind speed, a Laplace copula is developed to model the dependence structure of wind speeds at multiple sites, whereby the probabilistic power flow (PPF) problem can be mapped to the independent standard normal space. Based on a D−dimensional cubature rule and Kronecker product, a new multivariate quadrature rule is developed to calculate statistical moments of power flow solutions. Finally, the performance of the polynomial model and Laplace copula is checked using historical wind speed data, a case study is conducted on a modified IEEE 118-bus system to compare the proposed quadrature rule with the point estimate method for PPF computation.