Probabilistic Modelling and Optimization

Abstract

As wind speed fluctuations manifest in energy fluctuations, the instantaneous uncertainty of wind speed availability is a bottleneck for successful implementation of wind-based power generation technology. Although being a proven technology, this crucial issue has affected the market growth of wind power technology in the isolated hybrid mode. In this chapter, a methodology which accounts for the stochastic nature of wind is developed using chance-constrained programming integrated into a time step simulation process is introduced. This enables the formulation of a deterministic equivalent energy balance through which the design space for a pre-specified reliability requirement can be generated. Thus, the design space is expressed as a function of the targeted reliability, thereby enabling a tailor-made design specific to a given reliability requirement. A major outcome of the treatment is in showing that the cut-in wind speed of the turbine plays a critical role in delivering desired power supply reliability. Through illustrative examples, it is also demonstrated that wind-battery systems cannot be designed to provide power supply reliability beyond a maximum value.