Probabilistic modeling of PHEV charging load in distribution systems

Abstract

This paper proposes an annual probabilistic model for the energy consumed by a fleet of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) based on Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). This model presents the PHEV charging load scenarios and their probabilities for each hour of the year, which can be easily combined with the normal load models. This facilitates the utilization of this model by local distribution companies to quantify the impacts of PHEV charging on their systems and to define the penetration limit of PHEV in each territory.