Probabilistic modeling for reliability analysis of buried pipelines subjected to spatiotemporal earthquakes

Abstract

Reliability analysis of buried pipelines subjected to spatiotemporal seismic involves modeling multiple uncertainties related to loads, soil, and mechanical mechanisms. The present study proposes a probabilistic modeling method that can couple random spatiotemporal seismic vibrations in the axial and transverse directions of the pipeline, enabling probabilistic incorporation of stochastic uncertainty (random variability) into the seismic response analysis of structures. Uncertainties of soil properties are probabilistically modeled to simulate the random pipe–soil interaction effect. Spatiotemporal dynamic response of the pipelines is discretized using extreme value distribution theory, thus making the seismic reliability analysis of the pipeline within a time-invariant framework. The applicability and accuracy of the proposed method are illustrated by numerical studies. The application of the probabilistic modeling method supports reliability- and risk-based inspection and maintenance planning for buried pipelines subjected to spatiotemporal earthquakes.