Abstract
This paper presents a probabilistic model of cumulative damage based on Markov chains theory to model propagation of internal corrosion depth localized in a hydrocarbons transport pipeline. The damage accumulation mechanism is unit jump type, depending on the state. It uses a shock model based on Bernoulli trials and probabilities to remain in the same state or the next one. Data are adjusted to Lognormal distribution and proven with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The vector obtained from multiplying the initial state vector with the transition matrix was developed and the system of equations to find each transition probability with a single inspection report was solved. In order to calculate propagation of internal corrosion after inspection, an exponential equation was proposed and a parameter was adjusted to the data. Time to expected failure was obtained by adding the time expected in each damage state. Each time step was adjusted to real time.
Highlights
Throughout Mexico, there are approximately 54,000 kilometers of terrestrial pipeline in operation, transporting crude oil, natural gas, sour gas, sweet gas, gasoline, diesel, and other refined products
This paper presents a probabilistic model of cumulative damage based on Markov chains theory to model propagation of internal corrosion depth localized in a hydrocarbons transport pipeline
Almost half of pipeline has been operating for more than 30 years and, in spite of continual maintenance, inspection and patrolling works, problems caused by corrosion, damage by third parties, operation and design mistakes that may lead to system failure are present
Summary
Throughout Mexico, there are approximately 54,000 kilometers of terrestrial pipeline in operation, transporting crude oil, natural gas, sour gas, sweet gas, gasoline, diesel, and other refined products. Almost half of pipeline has been operating for more than 30 years and, in spite of continual maintenance, inspection and patrolling works, problems caused by corrosion, damage by third parties, operation and design mistakes that may lead to system failure are present. From a structural point of view, reliability or probability of success is the probability of a structure, an element or structural element satisfying the limit and service conditions for which it was intended In this manner, the risk of failure assessment on ducts based on mechanical or structural reliability methods is a better approach in assessing safety, providing an analytical tool which allows the assessment of risk with more reasonable and verifiable methods
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
