Probabilistic methods for the estimation of potential seismic damage: Application to reinforced concrete buildings in Turkey

Abstract

Three probabilistic methods, for the prediction of potential seismic damage to low and mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings in Turkey, are presented. As the first method, “best estimate” damage probability matrices for each seismic zone are developed by combining expert opinion and the damage statistics compiled from the recent earthquakes occurred in Turkey. Second method involves a reliability-based model, which treats the earthquake force and seismic resistance as random variables. This model expresses potential seismic damage in the form of a damage ratio distribution, which is a function of modified Mercalli intensity or peak ground acceleration. As the third methodology, discriminant analysis technique is utilized to carry out a statistical analysis on the damage data compiled during recent earthquakes that occurred in Turkey. Based on the classification procedure involved in this technique, the damage state probabilities corresponding to different modified Mercalli intensity levels are obtained. These three methods are applied on the building damage databases compiled in the aftermath of several recent earthquakes in Turkey: 1992 Erzincan, 1995 Dinar, and 1999 Duzce earthquakes. The probabilistic damage profile obtained according to these three methods is expressed in terms of damage ratios and the results are compared with each other.