Probabilistic methods for risk assessment of airframe digital twin structures

Abstract

Management of the airframe digital twin (DT) and its real equivalent for reliability, safety and economic considerations requires, as one component, a probabilistic treatment of the fracture critical components. The computation of the probability-of-failure, the remaining useful life, and the effects of inspections and repairs require accurate and efficient fracture mechanics lifing analyses, probabilistic descriptions of inputs, and probabilistic algorithms. The required computations, the current state-of-the-art in the risk assessment of DT modeling, and future challenges are described. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the computations.