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Abstract
To realize sustainable construction, planning for future maintenance costs is essential. In the case of multi-family housing, various maintenance issues can be expected to appear starting 10 years after completion. Therefore, preventive maintenance must be implemented in a systematic manner to cope with the problems caused by the natural aging of multi-family dwellings and to maintain a sustainable level of quality for the properties. In this study, maintenance costs were investigated for 224 multi-family housing units aged 20 years or older in Seoul, South Korea. Using Monte Carlo simulation in conjunction with expert interviews, a probabilistic maintenance cost analysis was conducted to analyze and estimate the variability in maintenance costs. The findings of the study propose that the use of probabilistic maintenance cost analysis can be developed into a useful planning tool for determining reasonable future maintenance costs in sustainable construction.
Highlights
The number of aged multi-family housing units is gradually increasing worldwide
The lower and upper limit variation rates were analyzed for specific elements of each group—roofs, elevators and lifts, water supply, heating, and outdoor units and welfare facilities—for the following reasons
In this study, the maintenance cost items were derived by referring to the 2017 long-term repair plan practical guidelines of the MOLIT
Summary
In the U.S, the proportion of these units aged 30 years or older increased from 47% in 1994 to 65% in 2016, representing half of the total stock [1,2,3]. In Japan, the number of multi-family buildings aged 40 years or older is expected to increase from 430,000 in 2014 to 2,770,000 by 2034 [4]. In South Korea, the number of multi-family buildings aged 30 years or older is rapidly increasing as a result of the urban developments of the 1980s [2]. The number of apartments aged 20 years or older is expected to reach 950,000, representing more than half of the total number of units [5,6]
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