Abstract
The paper addresses a probabilistic approach to lifetime prediction of cooled gas turbine blades. Variations of load and material parameters are taken into account by a combination of a direct Monte Carlo Simulation and a Response Surface Method. The proposed approach allows a reduction in the number of finite element analyses especially for problems with low failure probability. Therefore, the computational effort becomes acceptable even for full-scale 3D and 2D analysis models. Results of a probabilistic life assessment are shown for two cooled turbine blades. The probability of failure and the sensitivity of material and loading parameters are presented.
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