Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment using Copula modeling technique

Abstract

A new probabilistic methodology for landslide hazard assessment in regional scale using Copula modeling technique is presented. The current probabilistic landslide hazard analyses are performed under the assumption that landslide hazard elements, such as magnitude, frequency, and location, are independent. In this paper, a general approach is proposed to consider the possible dependence among hazard elements. Part of the Seattle, WA area was selected to evaluate the competence of the presented method. A total of 357 slope failure events and their corresponding topography and geology data were included in the study to develop and test the model. Based on the results, the mean success rates of the presented model in predicting landslide occurrence are 90 % in hazardous area and 12 % in safe locations on average, while these success rates are 63 and 44 % when these hazard elements were treated as mutually independent.