Abstract
As wind power generation rapid development in china, wind power prediction is the key to the system operate safely. Given significant uncertainties involved in wind generation, probabilistic interval forecasting provides a unique solution to estimate and quantify the potential impacts and risks facing system operation with wind penetration beforehand. this paper based on the point forecast, calculate wind power prediction error, formulate the distribution of prediction error, you can get the historical probabilistic distribution of prediction error, use the distribution of error to build the risk assessment of wind power after prediction, give the fluctuate range of predicted values. Probabilistic interval forecasting can obtain the probably of power system operation safely and reliability assessment criterion.
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