Probabilistic Impact Assessment of Residential Charging of Electric Motorcycles on LV Feeders

Abstract

Motorcycles form a popular mode of transport in East African countries, and policies in countries like Rwanda are encouraging a transition to electric motorcycles (EMs). This paper aims to identify the impacts of EM charging on a low voltage residential distribution network in future high uptake scenarios. A stochastic-probabilistic analysis is conducted on a residential network, looking at the effect of EM charging on voltage level, voltage unbalance as well as cable and transformer loading. The Monte Carlo Simulation method is used to account for the randomness in the placement of EMs along the network while the extended Herman Beta transform is used to account for the variability in the residential consumer loads. This paper found transformer overloading to be the limiting factor with regard to EM uptake for the sample network modelled. A sensitivity analysis then highlighted the effects that the feeder properties, transformer size as well as EM and residential load model had on the simulation outcome. The sensitivity analysis found the results most sensitive to the residential load modelling as this affected the transformer loading prior to any EM charging.