Probabilistic geomechanical analysis of compartmentalization at the Snøhvit CO2 sequestration project

Abstract

AbstractPressure buildup caused by large‐scale CO2 injection is a key concern during a carbon sequestration project. Large overpressures can compromise seal integrity, reactivate faults, and induce seismicity. Furthermore, pressure buildup is directly related with storage capacity. In this work we study the geomechanical response to CO2 injection at Snøhvit, to understand the potential for fault reactivation, leakage, and contamination of the producing interval through bounding faults. Furthermore, we evaluate the potential contribution of a structural component to reservoir compartmentalization. We combine simplified analytical models, based on critically stressed fracture theory and a Mohr‐Coulomb failure criterion, with a rigorous sensitivity analysis. Large stress uncertainties are present and reflected in the modeling results. It was found that under the most likely stress state the faults are fairly stable and caprock hydrofracturing would be expected before fault reactivation. In most of the analyzed cases, the critical pressure perturbation needed for reactivation is above 13 MPa, which was the limiting pressure increase before reaching the fracture pressure. Faults were found to be ~ 20% less stable when considering variations in SHmax orientation. In those cases, fault reactivation could be expected before caprock failure if injection continued. However, if the pressure increase did reach the critical values for seal failure estimated under the worst case (and least likely) stress state, no indication of such failure can be observed in the measured pressure response. Finally, the potential role of a structural component in the compartmentalization and fluid migration is difficult to assess due to the stress state uncertainty.