Probabilistic framework for evaluating food security of households in the aftermath of a disaster

Abstract

For households of all income levels, and especially for those that are food insecure, food access can be threatened by natural hazards. Extreme natural hazards can disrupt critical infrastructure systems, such as the transportation or electrical power networks, damaging the roads and bridges critical for food supply chains or electrical transmission lines providing electricity for food preservation. Interdependencies among infrastructure systems within the food supply chain make it vulnerable to unanticipated and cascading consequences. Maintaining food security in the aftermath of a natural hazard challenges a community’s resilience, recovery, and social well-being. This study introduces a methodology to consider how the interconnectedness among civil infrastructure systems impacts food-security of urban inhabitants. To this end, different infrastructure systems along with their spatial distribution are modeled to evaluate the restoration of food security within a community. Food security metrics, including food availability, accessibility, and affordability, are defined and quantified to provide risk-informed decision support to policymakers in the aftermath of an extreme natural hazard. The methodology proposed herein that considers system interconnectedness and uncertainties in demand and supply can be applied to identify practical policy interventions to hasten recovery of food systems and reduce the adverse impacts of food-insecurity on a community.