Probabilistic forecasting of hydrological events using geostatistical analysis / Prévision probabiliste d'événements hydrologiques par analyse géostatistique

Abstract

A method is introduced for probabilistic forecasting of hydrological events based on geostatistical analysis. In this method, the predictors of a hydrological variable define a virtual field such that, in this field, the observed dependent variables are considered as measurement points. Variography of the measurement points enables the use of the system of kriging equations to estimate the value of the variable at non-measured locations of the field. Non-measured points are the forecasts associated with specific predictors. Calculation of the estimation variance facilitates probabilistic analysis of the forecast variables. The method is applied to case studies of the Red River in Manitoba, Canada and Karoon River in Khoozestan, Iran. The study analyses the advantages and limitations of the proposed method in comparison with a K-nearest neighbour approach and linear and nonlinear multiple regression. The utility of the proposed method for forecasting hydrological variables with a conditional probability distribution is demonstrated.