Probabilistic Failure Envelopes of Monopiles in Scoured Seabed Based on a New Nonstationary Random Field Model

Abstract

Monopiles, which have been most extensively used in the offshore wind industries, are usually subject to threats from local scour. The effects of local scour on the bearing capacity of monopiles have been studied based on deterministic soil properties and local scour dimensions. However, the properties of the seabed soil and the dimensions of the local scour both have uncertainty. In this study, a new nonstationary random field model, which can better simulate the nonstationary characteristics of the seabed clayey soil and result in a safer probabilistic design of foundations, is proposed to characterize the spatial variability of the seabed clayey soil. Then, the effects of the spatial variability of the seabed clayey soil and the uncertainty of the local scour depth on the bearing capacity of monopiles are investigated under both uniaxial loading and vertical-horizontal-moment (VHM) combined loading using the random finite-element method combined with kriging metamodeling technique and Monte Carlo simulation. The undrained shear strength of the seabed clayey soil was simulated with a lognormally distributed nonstationary random field, and the local scour depth was treated as a uniform random variable. The negative correlation between them was also considered. The results show that the factor of safety required for the local scoured seabed decreased from 3.3 to 2.6 as the negative correlation was enhanced, greater than or equal to that [factor of safety (FS)=2.6] for the intact seabed. The procedure of analyzing the design failure envelop of a monopile in spatially variable clayey soil with a local scour proposed in this study can provide a reference for geotechnical engineers.