Probabilistic evaluation of the railway track infrastructure components failure risk

Anatoliy Shtompel,Andrii Ismagilov,Liudmyla Trykoz,Yaroslav Chmuzh,Dmytro Borodin,G Vatulia,O Darenskyi,A Plugin

doi:10.1051/matecconf/201823001017

Anatoliy Shtompel, Andrii Ismagilov + Show 6 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201823001017

Copy DOI

Abstract

The permanent way components are of key importance for safe operation of a rail way. The country regulations, in particular in Ukraine, specify the operational life limits for the permanent way but they do not define any tool or method to predict deterioration of the permanent way condition over time. The study is aimed to develop a method for assessing failure risk of the permanent way components in operation. There was a method offered to evaluate risk of failure of the permanent way components of the welded tracks, which considers accumulated freight load on a rail section. Each element of the permanent way, such as rails, fasteners, sleepers, ballast layer, accumulates defects and deformations. The accumulation rate is different for the above components and depends on freight traffic. There was probability of failure-free operation calculated for each component for the first time and an integral fatigue index of the construction has been offered which considers freight traffic accumulated load. There was a mathematical failure forecast model developed which allows planning of track maintenance. The model allows to take into account operating conditions of a railway section. The results of simulation are presented in various diagrams.

Highlights

Risk is not avoidable in railway operation
In order to remove negative effects of deterioration of operating conditions at a certain site, an appropriate system to manage railway availability is required. This system should be based on technical condition status of the way section derived from information about failure of the track permanent way (TPW) components
This paper is the first step towards creating a risk management system in the railway industry

Summary

Introduction

Risk is not avoidable in railway operation. It is defined as a measure combination of hazard likelihood and severity of consequences of an operational failure. In order to remove negative effects of deterioration of operating conditions at a certain site, an appropriate system to manage railway availability is required This system should be based on technical condition status of the way section derived from information about failure of the track permanent way (TPW) components. Considering the known values of the probability of failure-free operation of the i-th element (for a specific section of the track), the integral indicators for the TPW are defined for accumulated traffic load. The probability of failure-free operation PTPW(ti) is used to evaluate reliability of the TPW It is calculated at a specific moment of time ti (after the accumulation of a specific load traffic Ti, in million tons gross) according to the formula.

The probability of rail failures in operation is defined as follows

Findings

Conclusions