Abstract
Forward electricity market has emerged as a pivotal section for the electricity transaction to keep stakeholders away from price risk and electricity shortage. But the forward contract of conventional unit partially limits the unit output before operation, leading to the curtailed generation share of renewable energy source (RES). Modeling and assessing this impact is of great significance for system planning and market supervision. The central thesis of this paper is to find out the impact of forward market on RES curtailment. A probabilistic evaluation model for RES accommodation is proposed, taking the curtailment rate as a main evaluation index. We mainly research financial contract and physical contract, modeling the impact of them on thermal unit minimum load capacity and power load in evaluation model. The simulation is conducted in a simplified system, which reveals the change of RES curtailment with renege penalty, contract price and execution generation curve.
Highlights
The forward market is an important part of the power market, acting as a complement for the spot market
The main types of forward market we studied are financial contract and physical contract where the stakeholders are thermal units and load entities
The evaluation model was built based on probabilistic production simulation (PPS), considering the probabilistic characteristic of forward contract, to calculate the renewable energy source (RES) curtailment rate in a month under different contract conditions
Summary
The forward market is an important part of the power market, acting as a complement for the spot market. A primary concern of forward market here is how to evaluate the effect of precontracted electricity on future RES curtailment in a relatively long term, such as a month or a season This issue is of great significance within the field of future power market construction. Research [7] considers renewable energy volatility as an independent variable and indicates RES may undermine the role of forward contract, decreasing incentive of power plants. Another hot topic is the coordination of unit commitment and forward contract, on which reference [8] and [9] propose multi-time-range model for daily operation and long-term trading plans.
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