Abstract
AbstractCredibility of cost performance analyses and forecasts for effective control of construction projects depends on the stability of the cost performance index (CPI) as a leading indicator of future performance. This paper presents a simulation-based analytical model that evaluates the probability that the CPI of an individual project becomes stable at a particular time during the project’s duration. The CPI stability model is used to identify four cost stability driving factors, and their compounding effects are examined by a parametric study. A real-project application demonstrates that the CPI stability is an indicator of the overall project performance risk and thus, the specific conditions of each project must be properly accounted for in a CPI stability assessment. This paper contributes to enhancing the credibility of all CPI-based analyses in earned value management by providing insights into the underlying factors of cost performance stability and an analytical tool for assessing the CPI sta...
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