Abstract
Reliability and performance quality measures computed so far are deterministic in nature. They represent one operating state (a snapshot of the system conditions) in which the required demand and generation and transmission capacities are known with 100% certainty. In this paper, a general and coherent formulation is presented, which can be used to account for the randomness associated with the load level as well as the availability of generation and transmission capacities. The general probability formulation can be used to calculate various reliability indices and quality measures. The paper describes the new approach for computing probabilistic evaluation (expected value) of the reliability indices and performance quality measures and presents illustrative applications. The methodology used in this paper constitutes a new line of research in the probabilistic reliability evaluation of a system where the derived system-wide performance quality indices are capable of classifying and exhibitionistic areas of deficiencies, bottlenecks and redundancies in large-scale power grids.
Highlights
The competitive electricity market is subjected to an increasing amount of uncertainties such as the demand forecast uncertainty, electricity price volatility, reliability of the generation groups, economic growth uncertainties, and changing environmental and social impacts on the energy sector [1,2]
In the computational scheme of [2], the integrated system quality assessment is performed via solving a master linear programming problem in which a feasible power flow is established which minimizes the total system Load Not Served (LNS) subject to capacity limits and flow equations
Probabilistic Reliability Indices The power system can be described, for the purpose of composite reliability and performance quality assessment, by the three-component model in which generation, transmission, and load are considered as multi-state elements of the power system
Summary
The competitive electricity market is subjected to an increasing amount of uncertainties such as the demand forecast uncertainty, electricity price volatility, reliability of the generation groups, economic growth uncertainties, and changing environmental and social impacts on the energy sector [1,2]. Methods for computing probabilistic contingency-based reliability and performance quality indices have previously been published in [11,12,13,14,15,16,17]. Similar analysis will be used to compute the expected values of different system reliability and performance quality indices In this context, a “contingency scenario” or a system “demand level” are regarded, in a more general sense, as a “state”, which occurs with certain probability and represents a given demand value and an availability pattern of various capacities in the system. This paper shares the results of a recent major industry supported research and development study in which a novel framework was developed [2] for evaluating performance quality indices associated with power system generation demand balance. The novel formulation presented in this paper can accommodate the randomness associated with the load level and the availability of generation and transmission capacities
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