Probabilistic estimation of structural loads and responses with finite element procedure

Abstract

In this study, structural loads and responses of multistory frames are evaluated in terms of their variations by using stochastic process. For this purpose some algorithms are developed to simulate probabilistic loads and to obtain responses. Live and wind loads containing large variability are simulated as external loads. Structural analyses are realized by considering deterministic methods by finite element technique for each probabilistic load case. The model of Ferry Borges-Castanheta (FBC) is used to combine the sustained and intermittent load processes. A simplified stochastic model based on Bernoulli equation is used for the simulation of wind loads. Gumbel distribution is adopted to model the distribution of the extreme intensities. The simulated probabilistic loads and the corresponding responses are compared with those of deterministic counter parts. The results of the probabilistic model yield more accurate and realistic values for variable loads. These results may be used in the design of a system for further analyses such as reliability, risk, load and resistance factor design, etc. Key words: Probabilistic load, extreme load values, simulation, finite element method.