Probabilistic estimation of reliability values for frame buildings based on the results of certification taking into account tectonic faults

Abstract

With budget funding for two years in 2017-2018, the total certification of the housing stock of multi-apartment buildings was carried out for the first time. A total of 8,171 buildings were
 entered into the database, of which 1,847 are multi-storey frame buildings of various storeys and design solutions. It is established that 1628 frame buildings are earthquake-resistant, 59-buildings
 with the first flexible floor are non-earthquake-resistant and 160-are located in the zone of tectonic faults on the territory of the city. The hypothesis is accepted that buildings located in the zone of
 tectonic faults will be destroyed. Under these conditions, quantitative estimates of the failure probability and reliability values for frame buildings of various types were obtained for the first time. The frequency of earthquakes is taken into account according to the current "Map of seismic zoning of the Republic of Kazakhstan". The results of the reliability and failure estimates are used for practical recommendations to reduce the risk and expected losses in possible earthquakes. Total reinforcement of frame buildings with the first flexible floors (59 buildings) is proposed. However,
 the conditional probability of failure for a group of residential frame buildings will remain nonzero.
 The method of amplification should be determined based on the results of experimental studies.