Probabilistic Estimating: Mathematics and Applications

Abstract

In response to the increased risk levels found in today's projects, project participants are attempting to quantify project cost risk. Various detailed and conceptual estimating formats are reviewed and a number of probabilistic estimating methods are introduced. Particular attention is given to the process of matching a suitable probabilistic estimating technique to a specific estimating format. To select an appropriate probabilistic method, an estimator must consider data availability, existing correlations, output data requirements, the form of the, estimating model, and the number of cost elements contained in the model. Existing obstacles to more realistic probabilistic cost estimates are reviewed.