Probabilistic economic evaluation of the most prevalent in Greek market space heating systems

Abstract

In the present study, the most prevalent space heating (SH) systems are assessed by means of probabilistic economic method, for Athens (Greece) under the ongoing energy crisis. The examined SH systems are the air source heat pump, the natural gas boiler and the oil boiler. An apartment of 85 m2 living area is chosen as the standard Athenian dwelling type for the assessment of the SH systems. In addition, two economic scenarios are set related to the annual energy inflation rate, the pessimistic and the optimistic. Simulations are executed in TRNSYS for the physical system and in MATLAB for the economic analysis. The economic analysis is carried out with the combination of the Monte Carlo simulations and the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) method. It turned out that, the LCC (as net present value) for all systems is much higher than the pre-crisis cost and is not feasible under the existing obscure economic period. It was proved that, the energy cost subsidy may be a solution on the volatility of the energy market, however, this can be achieved with rather high subsidy rates. The air source heat pump system was found to obtain better economy than the conventional fuel-based systems and the pairing of the heat pump with the PV system proved as the only economic feasible solution. The developed methodology can be utilized for evaluating the investment risk associated with the uncertain of the future cost of energy.