Probabilistic ecological risk assessment of cadmium in the Bohai Sea using native saltwater species

Abstract

Predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) is often used in ecological risk assessment to determine low-risk concentrations for chemicals. In the present study, the chronic data from native saltwater species were used to calculated PNEC values using four methods: log-normal distribution (ETX 2.0), log-triangle distribution (US EPA’s water quality criteria procedure), burr III distribution (BurrliOZ) and traditional assessment factor (AF). The PNECs that were calculated using four methods ranged from 0.08 μg/L to 1.8 μg/L. Three of the SSD-derived PNECs range from 0.94 to 1.8 μg/L, about a factor of two apart. To demonstrate the use of SSD-based PNEC values and comprehensively estimate the regional ecological risk for cadmium in surface water of the Bohai Sea, in the Liaodong Bay, Bohai Bay, and Laizhou Bay, China, the dissolved cadmium concentrations were measured and obtained 753 valid data covering 190 stations from July 2006 to November 2007. Based on three ecological risk assessment approaches, namely hazard quotient (HQ), probabilistic risk quotient and joint probability curve (JPC), the potential ecological risk of cadmium in surface water of the Liaodong Bay, Bohai Bay, and Laizahou Bay were estimated. Overall, the ecological risk of cadmium to aquatic ecosystem in the whole Bohai Sea was at acceptable ecological risk level, the order of ecological risk was Liaodong Bay>Bohai Bay>Laizhou Bay. However, more concerns should be paid to aquatic ecological risk in the Liaodong Bay which is the home of many steel, metallurgy and petrochemical industrial in China.