Abstract
Probabilistic design of wind turbines requires definition of the structural elements to be included in the probabilistic basis: e.g., blades, tower, foundation; identification of important failure modes; careful stochastic modeling of the uncertain parameters; recommendations for target reliability levels and recommendation for consideration of system aspects. The uncertainties are characterized as aleatoric (physical uncertainty) or epistemic (statistical, measurement and model uncertainties). Methods for uncertainty modeling consistent with methods for estimating the reliability are described. It is described how uncertainties in wind turbine design related to computational models, statistical data from test specimens, results from a few full-scale tests and from prototype wind turbines can be accounted for using the Maximum Likelihood Method and a Bayesian approach. Assessment of the optimal reliability level by cost-benefit optimization is illustrated by an offshore wind turbine example. Uncertainty modeling is illustrated by an example where physical, statistical and model uncertainties are estimated.
Highlights
High reliability and cost reductions are substantial requirements in order that offshore and land-based wind turbines can become competitive compared to other energy supply methods
Formulation of the probabilistic basis includes the following aspects described in the paper: (1) definition of the structural elements to be included in the probabilistic basis: e.g., blades, tower, substructure and foundation; (2) identification of important failure modes and stochastic models for the uncertain parameters; (3) recommendation of methods for estimation of the reliability; (4) recommendations for target reliability levels for the different groups of elements; (5) recommendation for consideration of system aspects and damage tolerant design
An important aspect in obtaining wind turbine systems with high reliability and availability is to account for system reliability effects and to secure a system that is robust to unexpected incidents and errors
Summary
High reliability and cost reductions are substantial requirements in order that offshore and land-based wind turbines can become competitive compared to other energy supply methods. Improved design with a consistent reliability level for all components can be obtained by use of probabilistic design methods, where explicit account of uncertainties connected to loads, strengths and calculation methods is made. As basis for the design of wind turbines tests with important components and material strength parameters are often performed. Formulation of the probabilistic basis includes the following aspects described in the paper: (1) definition of the structural elements to be included in the probabilistic basis: e.g., blades, tower, substructure and foundation; (2) identification of important failure modes and stochastic models for the uncertain parameters; (3) recommendation of methods for estimation of the reliability; (4) recommendations for target reliability levels for the different groups of elements; (5) recommendation for consideration of system aspects and damage tolerant design. The application of a general framework for structural, risk-based robustness/damage-tolerant assessment to wind turbine systems is described
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