Probabilistic Descriptions of Wind Effects and Wind-Load Factors for Database-Assisted Design

Abstract

Database-assisted design (DAD) for wind results in structures with reduced material consumption and failure risks, i.e., in improved safety and sustainability. The paper presents a DAD-compatible probabilistic procedure for estimating: (1) Wind effects corresponding to any mean recurrence interval of the wind speeds, and (2) wind-load factors. Unlike the ASCE 7 Standard and earlier structural reliability estimates, the procedure accounts for the inherent randomness in the estimation of peaks and for relevant wind-related knowledge uncertainties. On the basis of a selection of uncertainty parameters believed to be reasonable, it is concluded that: (1) The extreme wind speed distribution type significantly affects the estimates of the load factors. Our estimates, based on the Extreme Value Type III Reverse Weibull distribution, yield load factors consistent with values specified in the ASCE 7 Standard—in contrast to estimates published in the 1980’s. (2) The variability of the ratio between wind speeds aver...