Probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change adaptation strategies for new RC structures exposed to chloride ingress

Abstract

Reinforced concrete (RC) structures are subjected to environmental actions affecting their performance, serviceability and safety. Among these actions, chloride ingress leads to corrosion initiation and its interaction with service loading could reduce its operational life. Experimental evidence indicates that chloride ingress is highly influenced by weather conditions in the surrounding environment and therefore by climate change. Consequently, both structural design and maintenance should be adapted to these new environmental conditions. This work focuses on the assessment of the costs and benefits of a climate adaptation strategy for new RC structures placed in chloride-contaminated environments under various climate change scenarios. Their cost-effectiveness will be measured in terms of the Benefit-to-Cost Ratio (BCR) and the probability that BCR exceeds unity –i.e., Pr(BCR>1). BCR is selected because it seems to be a metric that government and policy makers are familiar with. The results indicate that the cost-effectiveness of a given adaptation strategy will depend mainly on exposure conditions and climate change scenarios.