Abstract
Marine environment is one of the most aggressive exposure conditions for concrete structures. The paper presents a probabilistic evaluation of corrosion initiation time of 80-month-old concrete structures under tropical marine environment with optimization method and Monte Carlo simulations. Results indicate that concrete cover depth and diffusion coefficient obey normal distribution and lognormal distribution, respectively. With target probability of failure value of 10%, corrosion initiation time is about 40 years after completion of construction. Compared with Monte Carlo simulations, optimization algorithm is an efficient method applied to the problem of chloride diffusion taking into consideration the time-dependent property of chloride diffusion coefficient. Sensitivity analysis should consider the influence of distribution and coefficient of variation of random variables.
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