Probabilistic Characterization of Life-Cycle Agency and User Costs: Case Study of Minnesota

Abstract

Life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) is a commonly used approach by pavement engineers to compare the economic efficiency of alternative pavement design and maintenance strategies. Over the past two decades, the pavement community has augmented the LCCA framework used in practice by explicitly accounting for uncertainty in the decision-making process and incorporating life-cycle costs not only to the agency but also to the users of a facility. This study represents another step toward improving the LCCA process by focusing on methods to characterize the cost of relevant pay items for an LCCA as well as integrating costs accrued to users of a facility caused by pavement–vehicle interaction (PVI) and work zone delays. The developed model was implemented in a case study to quantify the potential implication of both of these components on the outcomes of an LCCA. Results from the construction cost analysis suggest that the proposed approaches in this paper lead to high-fidelity estimates that outperform current practice. Furthermore, results from the case study indicate that PVI can be a dominant contributor to total life-cycle costs and, therefore, should be incorporated in future LCCAs.