Probabilistic Characteristics of Drought Propagation from Meteorological to Hydrological Drought in South Korea

Abstract

A reliable understanding of propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought is necessary for accurate forecasting of hydrological droughts. Our current understanding of drought propagation is limited because the characteristics of each drought and the lag time between droughts are uneven due to spatial variability in underlying conditions and climatic variables. The objective of this study is to identify the probabilistic relationship between lag time and the occurrence of different classes of hydrological drought in South Korea while considering propagation factors and using a Bayesian network model. The results show that the propagation rate varied from 27% to 60% and the maximum value of the lag time was projected to be 4 to 10 weeks. For moderate intensity of meteorological drought, the occurrence probability of lag time was high and decreased when the intensity changed to severe and extreme. In addition, the probability for each class of hydrological drought intensity varied with space and increased as the intensity of propagated meteorological drought class changed from moderate to extreme. The observed probabilistic characteristics of hydrological drought may be useful in decision-making strategies for mitigating water shortage.