Probabilistic causality reexamined

Abstract

According to Nancy Cartwright, a causal law holds just when a certain probabilistic condition obtains in all “test situations” which in turn satisfy a set of background conditions. These background conditions are shown to be inconsistent and, on separate account, logically incoherent. I offer a corrective reformulation which also incorporates a strategy for problems like Hesslow's thrombosis case. I also show that Cartwright's recent argument for modifying the condition to appeal to singular causes fails.