Probabilistic-based burst failure mechanism analysis and risk assessment of pipelines with random non-uniform corrosion defects, considering the interacting effects

Abstract

Corrosion defects were primary causes for pipeline burst failures. Traditional methodologies simplified the realistic irregular-shaped defects as uniform ones, ignoring the effects of random morphologies on failure behaviours, which caused deviations in remaining strength pb estimation and reliability analysis. Addressing this issue, through coupling random field, non-linear finite element analysis and Monte-Carlo Simulation, an integrated methodology was developed to describe failure behaviours of pipelines with random defects. The failure mechanism and reliability analysis were performed. The pbs for random defects exhibited significant variabilities, of which the probability distribution patterns altered with different corrosion depths attributed to multiple failure modes. The main value of pb for random defects was lower than that of uniform defects, especially for deeper corrosion and interacting defects. At maximum, this reduction attained over 28%; The spatial variation gradient of remaining wall thickness dominated failure developments, based on which three failure modes were revealed; The wall thickness, corrosion degree and interacting effects were influential on failure probabilities Pfs. An average failure risk of Pf over 0.6 would be suffered for employing traditional methodologies. Polynomial chaos expansion models were fitted to estimate pb from corrosion morphologies, showing reasonable accuracies. Besides, the performance variations with different cases were discussed.