Abstract
This paper presents a probabilistic-based approach for available transfer capability (ATC) assessment. A composite algorithm is developed to generate ensembles of future wind generation scenarios for the existing and planned wind sites using both measured and model-produced wind data. Then, the ensembles of wind and load are used to calculate their respective probability density functions (pdfs), which are subsequently used to calculate the probabilistic-based ATC for a selected transmission corridor. The method has been tested and validated using historical and operational data provided by the Idaho Power Co. The results show that the method can effectively quantify the uncertainties in the ATC assessment introduced by variable generation resources and load variations. As a result, the grid planners will inform the likelihood for the transmission corridor to exceed its transfer capacity in any targeted future years as well as the duration of such events.
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