Probabilistic back-analysis of rainfall-induced landslides for slope reliability prediction with multi-source information

Abstract

Probabilistic back-analysis is an important means to infer the statistics of uncertain soil parameters, making the slope reliability assessment closer to the engineering reality. However, multi-source information (including test data, monitored data, field observation and slope survival records) is rarely used in current probabilistic back-analysis. Conducting the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction under rainfalls by integrating multi-source information is a challenging task since thousands of random variables and high-dimensional likelihood function are usually involved. In this paper, a framework by integrating a modified Bayesian Updating with Subset simulation (mBUS) method with adaptive Conditional Sampling (aCS) algorithm is established for the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction. Within this framework, the high-dimensional probabilistic back-analysis problem can be easily tackled, and the multi-source information (e.g. monitored pressure heads and slope survival records) can be fully used in the back-analysis. A real Taoyuan landslide case in Taiwan, China is investigated to illustrate the effectiveness and performance of the established framework. The findings show that the posterior knowledge of soil parameters obtained from the established framework is in good agreement with the field observations. Furthermore, the updated knowledge of soil parameters can be utilized to reliably predict the occurrence probability of a landslide caused by the heavy rainfall event on September 12, 2004 or forecast the potential landslides under future rainfalls in the Fuhsing District of Taoyuan City, Taiwan, China.