Abstract
This research work proposes a novel approach to estimate probabilities of availability states of the energy transfer network in marine energy conversion subsystems, using Bayesian Networks (BNs). The logical interrelationships between units at different level in this network can be understood through qualitative system analysis, which then can be modeled by the fault tree (FT). The FT can be mapped to a corresponding BN, and the condition probabilities of nodes can be determined based on the logic structure. A case study was performed to demonstrate how the mapping is implemented, and the probabilities of availability states were estimated. The results give the probability of each availability state as a function of time, which serves as a basis for choosing the optimal design solution.
Highlights
Marine energy, as a resource of clean energy, is expected to have a role in cutting global carbon emissions over the few decades [1]
Due to no tailor-made reliability database for marine energy converters (MECs), the failure rates of the basic components can be referred to some generic database for electrical components in other industrial applications [21]
Ginaldi et al [22] referred to the similar reliability database, took into account some influencing factors and proposed a simulation-based framework for assessing reliability, availability, and maintainability of the wave energy device components
Summary
As a resource of clean energy, is expected to have a role in cutting global carbon emissions over the few decades [1]. Marine energy has not been commercialized due to design-stage and operation-stage challenges. A robust and reliable design has been a target of the marine energy industry. The study regarding the availability of marine energy systems has been a hot research topic over the past a few years. For the energy transfer subsystem, availability is directly linked to the power production. Time-based availability, defined as the ratio of the uptime to the design lifetime, was studied for this paper. Marine energy systems are able to function with reduced energy transmission capacity, and only a complete system failure will terminate energy transmission altogether. The most critical subassembly in the mechanical subsystem refers to the power take-offs. The electrical subsystem, thesubsystem energy transfer paper, is the target which availability is estimated for. Subsystem in this paper, is the target which availability is estimated for
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