Probabilistic Assessment on 3D Stability and Failure Mechanism of Undrained Slopes Based on the Kinematic Approach of Limit Analysis

Abstract

Most slope collapses have three-dimensional (3D) characteristics due to the uniform soil. The traditional plane-strain analyses neglect the 3D effects and could yield an overestimation or underestimation of the slope stability. The present study analyzes the stability of 3D slopes characterized by spatially variable undrained shear strength. A 3D slope reliability analysis approach that can fully consider the spatial variability of soil properties is proposed based on the plastic limit analysis upper-bound theorem. Within the framework of Monte Carlo simulation, the effects of strength gradient, the coefficient of variation, and the scale of fluctuation of soil undrained shear strength on the slope reliability index are examined. The length of the 3D failure surface is highlighted as an essential characteristic in 3D slope analysis. The slope failure mechanisms are classified, and the occurrence probability of each type is quantified. The obtained results indicate that the degree of nonstationarity and the coefficient of variation of undrained shear strength have significant impacts on the slope failure width, and the variation of failure mechanism highly depends on the combined effect of slope inclination and soil strength. The findings could guide slope reinforcement and facilitate a more efficient and accurate risk evaluation of slopes.